Powered by MOMENTUM MEDIA
subscribe to our newsletter

Cash rate to hit 1.5pc by year end

BetaShares believes the Reserve Bank will be under pressure later this year to cut interest rates further should the housing sector experience a downturn or the non-mining investment recovery remain stalled.

BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese has forecast the official cash rate to end the year at 1.5 per cent and the Australian dollar to sink to 0.68 US cents.

According to Mr Bassanese, the monthly level of home building approvals is already near previous cyclical peaks, suggesting there is little room to further increase supply.

“Should home building approvals peak within coming months, it would mean home building activity will also start to decline by late this year [or] early 2016 – undercutting what has recently been an important source of economic growth,” he said.

Mr Bassanese said the housing sector has enjoyed a decent lift in both prices and building activity over recent years, but there is emerging evidence that suggests the rise in supply has not been in areas where it is needed most.

Advertisement
Advertisement

He said that while price rises have been most acute in Sydney, the expansion in supply has been more evident in Melbourne and Brisbane – particularly high-rise developments in inner-city areas.

“The RBA’s report noted the ‘risk of oversupply appears most evident in inner-city Melbourne’, while it also cited liaison reports from business expressing ‘concern about possible future oversupply’ in Brisbane also,” Mr Bassanese said.

Mr Bassanese added that non-residential construction accounts for around 40 per cent of non-mining sector investment, and compared with other investment components, has a higher “local value-added component” and is “quite cyclically volatile”.

“Accordingly, it seems unlikely that non-mining investment can recover strongly in the coming year and provide much of a sorely needed boost to the economy without a decent rebound in non-mining, non-residential construction,” he said.

Cash rate to hit 1.5pc by year end

PROMOTED CONTENT


>BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese has forecast the official cash rate to end the year at 1.5 per cent and the Australian dollar to sink to 0.68 US cents.

According to Mr Bassanese, the monthly level of home building approvals is already near previous cyclical peaks, suggesting there is little room to further increase supply.

“Should home building approvals peak within coming months, it would mean home building activity will also start to decline by late this year [or] early 2016 – undercutting what has recently been an important source of economic growth,” he said.

Mr Bassanese said the housing sector has enjoyed a decent lift in both prices and building activity over recent years, but there is emerging evidence that suggests the rise in supply has not been in areas where it is needed most.

He said that while price rises have been most acute in Sydney, the expansion in supply has been more evident in Melbourne and Brisbane – particularly high-rise developments in inner-city areas.

“The RBA’s report noted the ‘risk of oversupply appears most evident in inner-city Melbourne’, while it also cited liaison reports from business expressing ‘concern about possible future oversupply’ in Brisbane also,” Mr Bassanese said.

Mr Bassanese added that non-residential construction accounts for around 40 per cent of non-mining sector investment, and compared with other investment components, has a higher “local value-added component” and is “quite cyclically volatile”.

“Accordingly, it seems unlikely that non-mining investment can recover strongly in the coming year and provide much of a sorely needed boost to the economy without a decent rebound in non-mining, non-residential construction,” he said.

Cash rate to hit 1.5pc by year end
mortgagebusiness

Latest News

Residential real estate in Australia is now worth more than $8 trillion, four times the size of the country’s GDP, following a surge in va...

The surge in housing prices should be addressed but not through monetary policy, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has stated. ...

Restrictions that were brought in to curb investor lending in 2017 have led to a “critical undersupply” of rental properties in capital ...

FROM THE WEB

Do you expect to see strong uptake of the HomeBuilder scheme?

Website Notifications

Get notifications in real-time for staying up to date with content that matters to you.