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Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide to continue outperforming other states

Research from a major bank has suggested these states will see new peaks in house prices over the next year.

Major bank ANZ’s latest report – Housing outlook: Price growth diverging – has stated that a shortage of available homes in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide is likely to cause these capitals to continue to outperform other cities in house price growth.

According to ANZ senior economist Blair Chapman, strong growth in lending to investors in these cities has supported housing prices to “reach new peaks”.

Over the course of 2023, Perth took the top spot in housing price growth at 16.1 per cent (according to CoreLogic data), followed by Brisbane at 13.5 per cent and Adelaide at 8.9 per cent.

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ANZ has forecast Brisbane and Adelaide’s prices to rise a further 9–10 per cent over 2024, while Perth is expected to record price increases of 20–21 per cent.

Overall, Chapman stated the major bank expects national price growth to be subdued over this year, with capital city housing price growth of 6–7 per cent, following 9.3 per cent growth in 2023, largely due to slowing price growth in Sydney and Melbourne.

“We expect price growth to slow to 5 to 6 per cent in 2025, as population growth slows alongside an increase in available housing,” he said.

“An expected lift in household incomes (helped first by fiscal policy) will support prices from late 2024 onwards.”

Supply and demand imbalances continue to drive price growth, according to the report, particularly in Western Australia and Queensland, which have recorded population growth outpacing the growth in estimated dwelling stock since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This, in turn, has increased any relative supply and demand imbalance that existed in 2020, putting upwards pressure on housing prices.

However, in states such as Victoria, ANZ estimated that dwelling stock has grown faster than the state’s population since early 2020 as well as other states and territories (excluding the ACT).

“This is putting less pressure on housing prices to increase in Victoria. The growth in New South Wales’s estimated dwelling stock has also outpaced population growth but to a lesser extent,” Chapman said.

CoreLogic’s latest Home Value Index (HVI) for May 2024 showed the largest monthly growth in home prices since October 2023 of 0.8 per cent, marking the 16th consecutive rise in the index.

Similarly, PropTrack’s Home Price Index grew by 0.3 per cent nationally, leaving prices now 6.68 per cent above the same levels seen a year ago (May 2023) and 9.58 per cent above the December 2022 lows.

[RELATED: Differing growth rates explained by low supply: CoreLogic]

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