National house price growth to continue in 2015-16

Housing values have bounced back in June, taking dwelling values across the combined capital cities almost 10 per cent higher over the 2014-15 financial year and setting the property market up for a broadly positive 12 months ahead.

CoreLogic RP Data’s latest home value results revealed that capital city dwelling values finished the financial year strongly, with total dwelling values rising 2.0 per cent over the June quarter and 9.8 per cent over the year.

The rate of capital gain was slightly higher over the second half of the year (5.1 per cent) compared with the first half (4.5 per cent), highlighting that the housing market has gathered some momentum during 2015.

Unsurprisingly, Sydney was the best performing capital city over the June quarter, with dwelling values up 3.1 per cent.

This was followed by Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane with increases of 1.9 per cent, 1.8 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.

Price growth was not universal, however. Perth dwelling values fell slightly by 0.2 per cent over the June quarter, as did Canberra and Hobart, by 0.5 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively.

Darwin was the weakest performing capital city, with dwelling values decreasing by 3.1 per cent over the quarter.

Looking at the financial year ahead, CoreLogic RP Data’s Cameron Kusher said housing market conditions look to remain mixed across the country.

“Sydney and Melbourne are likely to continue to be the standouts for capital growth, however we expect that over the year, the rate of growth will reduce back to more sustainable levels,” he said.

“We may also see a further pick-up in growth in markets such as Brisbane, Newcastle, Wollongong and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.”

Mr Kusher said he expects that the differential in affordability in these regions, relative to Sydney and Melbourne, will drive more buyer activity.

However, he said growth in markets such as Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra is likely to remain contained, with weakness in mining areas and Perth and Darwin likely to persist.

Mr Kusher also noted that with many lenders changing their lending policies, after consistent pressure from the Reserve Bank and APRA, accessing a mortgage may become more difficult over the next 12 months.

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Emma Ryan

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