realestatebusiness logo

Subscribe to our newsletter

30% growth set to materialise in 75% of regions

Property analysts believe that the RBA’s forecasted 30 per cent growth in property prices over the next three years will materialise in 75 per cent of Aussie regions.

According to a document released by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) earlier this month, following a Freedom of Information request, a permanent 1 percentage point (100 basis point reduction) cut in the official rate could increase real housing prices by 30 per cent over three years.

With the RBA clearly alert to the risks from low interest rates, property investor and market analysts Arjun Paliwal (InvestorKit’s head of research) and Kent Lardner (Suburbtrends’ director) believe the bank’s predictions are fairly accurate.

“With what we can see today based on recent shifts in inventory levels, we would be comfortable in saying the RBA forecast will apply in 75 per cent of regions,” Mr Paliwal and Mr Lardner told our sister brand Smart Property Investment for the Property Nerds podcast.

According to their analysis of inventory level trends over the last two years, a substantial decline in stock levels is evident, creating high price pressure.


“There has been a dramatic decline in stock levels relevant to sales volumes (inventory levels). This change is creating many high pressures,” they suggested.

“Most regions across Australia are seeing a decline in days on market. This is likely to flow onto prices and a reduction in vendor discounting across house markets,” they noted.

Some of the notable areas where the two believe the RBA’s predictions are “most likely” to materialise include:

  • NSW’s Leichhardt, Warringah, Sutherland Shire, Wollongong, Gosford, Newcastle, Wyong and Hornsby;
  • Tasmania’s Hobart and Burnie-Ulverstone;
  • ACT’s Weston Creek, Tuggeranong and Gungahlin;
  • Queensland’s The Hills District; and
  • Victoria’s Mildura, Bendigo, Mornington Peninsula and Warrnambool

According to the pair, regions under the “most likely” category have seen inventory levels decline by up to 49 per cent over the last two years, with a majority tipped to have less than three months of stock available.

Other regions within Adelaide, Brisbane, and regional markets such as Marion, Mitcham, Onkapringa, Tea Tree Gully, Wynnum-Manly, Sandgate, Nundah, Wagga Wagga, Ballarat and Toowoomba are “likely” to see the RBA’s predicted growth.

But among those “less likely” areas are Victoria’s Stonnington, Yarra and Essendon, South Australia’s Adelaide City, Queensland’s Surfers Paradise, Cairns and Port Douglas. 

[Related: Collateralised borrowing spiked amid financial stress: RBA]

30% growth set to materialise in 75% of regions
30% growth set to materialise in 75% of regions


If you have any news, ideas or enquiries for Mortgage Business - please contact This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


Latest News

The Mortgage Business Uncut podcast is your weekly analysis of the biggest themes shaping the Australian mortgages market. ...

The Liberal Party has pledged to allow first home buyers to use their superannuation savings for housing deposits, but the proposal has com...

More than two-fifths of a borrower’s income was needed to service mortgages in March 2022, after rising for the third consecutive quarter,...


Join Australia's most informed brokers

Do you know which lenders are providing brokers and their customers with the best service?

Use this monthly data to make informed decisions about which lenders to use. Simply contribute to the survey and we'll send you the results directly to your inbox - completely free!

When do you expect the cash rate to start increasing?

Website Notifications

Get notifications in real-time for staying up to date with content that matters to you.