Almost 1 million households to face housing stress in 2 decades

Demand for affordable housing will increase more than 50 per cent by 2041 in many parts of Australia, research done by the UNSW City Futures Research Centre for the Community Housing Industry Association revealed.

The data showed the number of households in housing stress is expected to climb from 640,000 (in last year’s census) to 940,000 by 2041, with one in 15 Australian households experiencing homelessness, overcrowded homes, or rental stress on census night in 2021.

Researcher Dr Ryan van den Nouwelant of City Futures Research Centre said the research should be used to “inform the priorities” in the government’s housing accord.

“There are Australians with unmet housing needs in all parts of the country. This research identifies the type and location of housing that is needed to meet the needs of the most vulnerable parts of the community,” Mr van den Nouwelant said.

The analysis showed large capital cities had the highest numbers of unmet housing needs, with Sydney and Brisbane marking the highest rates at 7.6 per cent (144,700 households) and 7.5 per cent (71,000 households), respectively.

Melbourne and Hobart also reported high levels of unmet housing needs with 6 per cent or 109,800 households in Melbourne and 6.2 per cent (6,100 households) in Tasmania.

Regional Queensland also has one of the highest rates of unmet housing needs at 8.1 per cent (81,500 households), with regional NSW behind at 6.8 per cent (76,800 households).

The most vulnerable households in Queensland include Beaudesert (10 per cent), Gold Coast and Moreton Bay (9.9 per cent), Ipswich (9 per cent), and Cairns (8.9 per cent).

In NSW, Sydney’s South West was feeling the pinch at 12.7 per cent of households experiencing housing stress, followed by South West regions (12.7 per cent), Parramatta (10.6 per cent), and the Inner South West (10.2 per cent).

Regional NSW’s Coffs Harbour and Grafton were close behind with 9.2 per cent of households under housing stress.

Families represented half of the unmet housing needs, an over-representation given they only account for approximately 40 per cent of all households.

Mr van den Nouwelant said for families, the need for larger dwellings can translate to higher housing costs.

In order to combat the housing crisis, the report estimated there needs to be annual growth of 6.5 per cent, or an average of 47,000, non-market homes over the next 20 years.

“Such a home-building program would house the approximately one in 10 households whose needs are not anticipated to otherwise be met,” Mr van den Nouwelant said.

“Currently, only around one third of this group are housed in suitable non-market housing.”

Chief executive of the Community Housing Industry Association, Wendy Hayhurst, said the research clearly showed the importance of a long-term national housing strategy.

“The Commonwealth has laid important foundations for expanding social and affordable housing and it is reassuring to see them seriously grapple with this challenge,” Ms Hayhurst said.

“However we will need to muster additional investment from all levels of Government and superannuation funds to meet this challenge. It is hard to think of a higher priority than giving all Australians a stable and secure home.”

Under the government’s housing accord, it has committed $350 million over five years, with ongoing availability payments over the longer term to deliver an additional 10,000 affordable dwellings, with the bulk of the investment coming from the private sector.

[Related: Economists rate governments housing accord]