Aussies wait for market conditions to shift before buying 

A survey of over 1,604 Australians conducted by the Dye & Durham Australia in September revealed that 19 per cent of Australians waited for property prices to drop before purchasing a home, while 6 per cent of potential sellers held off waiting for prices to increase, this past year.

This trend is expected to persist, with 26 per cent of buyers planning to wait for price drops and 11 per cent of sellers hoping for increases in 2024.

However, at the same time, more Australians planned to sell their primary residences to buy another in the next 12 months, marking a potential resurgence in property market activity.

Indeed, CoreLogic’s latest home values data showed values have continued to increase, following 10 consecutive months of decline, resulting in an 8.4 per cent decrease in property prices, from peak to trough.

Since the trough in January, the national index has recovered by 6.6 per cent.

While rising interest rates and living costs are on people’s minds, the desire for home ownership remains strong, the managing director of Dye and Durham Australia, Dennis Barnhart, said.

Mr Barnhart noted owners and mortgagors are “carefully timing” their next moves in the property market.

The data also revealed 8 per cent of people were likely to sell their primary residence to buy another within the next 12 months – more than double the 3 per cent last year.

As such, the shortage of listings that prevailed over the past 12 months is likely to ease over the next year.

Despite a slowdown in settlements, search volumes for activities like land titles remain strong, he added.

“That is because many people are refinancing their existing mortgages, most likely prompted by the increase in interest rates, and this still requires land titles searches,’’ Mr Barnhart said.

Indeed, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported heightened refinance activity, with over $20 billion in home loans switched in June 2023.

The surge in refinance activity followed the swift increase in interest rates, which has held steady at 4.1 per cent, leading a substantial 92 per cent of respondents to anticipate that interest rates will either remain high or continue to rise this year.

However, due to higher interest rates and rising property values, two-thirds of respondents consider buying unlikely under current conditions and 45 per cent believe buying a home may not happen at all.

Recessionary threat looms

In addition, the report revealed concerns about a looming recession, with 44 per cent of Australians believing the nation will enter a recession within the next 12 months and 15 per cent already think it’s in recession.

Nearly two-thirds anticipate a worsening financial position in the next year, driven by factors like inflation, interest rates and stagnant wages.

Furthermore, the cost of living remains the primary concern for 66 per cent of respondents, followed by housing and rental affordability at 54 per cent.

Moreover, 64 per cent anticipate a decrease in their income and 56 per cent expect it to remain static, failing to keep pace with inflation.

[Related: $20bn in home loans refinanced in June: ABS]