Property price rebound likely to continue: PropTrack

PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook Report for December 2023 has foreseen the rebound in property prices is likely to continue in 2024, with national property prices expected to rise between 1 per cent and 4 per cent.

Across the states, home prices in Sydney are expected to rise by 2 per cent to 5 per cent, while in Melbourne they’re set to rise by 1 per cent and 4 per cent, a slower pace than recorded throughout 2023.

Following consistently strong gains in 2023, Perth (5 per cent to 8 per cent), Adelaide (4 per cent to 7 per cent), and Brisbane (3 per cent to 6 per cent) are the likely capitals to lead home price growth across the country.

Declines or modest gains in home prices are expected among the smaller capital cities, with Canberra expected to have a decline of 1 per cent to an increase of 2 per cent, Hobart (-2 per cent to 1 per cent), and Darwin (-3 per cent to 0 per cent).

According to PropTrack, this forecast considers the current market momentum, along with predictions on housing supply, interest rate forecasts, and their impact to date.

Report author and PropTrack’s director of economic research Cameron Kusher said: “Australia’s property market proved resilient in 2023.

“Home prices have increased 5.5 per cent so far this year to a record high, despite deteriorating housing affordability and interest rate rises significantly reducing borrowing capacities.

“Nationally, we expect prices to grow between 1 per cent and 4 per cent in 2024. We expect that a combination of continued strong demand and limited new housing construction will contribute to price gains, albeit at a slower pace than what we experienced this year.”

Mr Kusher added that the stage 3 tax cuts expected in July 2024 could lead to demand for higher-priced housing.

“Interest rates are now at a 12-year high and while they remained steady in December, there is a possibility of future increases, which could have an impact on buyer and seller sentiment,” Mr Kusher concluded.

“Reflecting on 2023, a number of factors drove the home price rebound.

“The volume of stock available for sale remained at persistently low levels while buyer demand also increased significantly, fuelled by a housing shortage and strong population growth. It’s likely these trends will continue into 2024.”

As of November 2023, home prices rose 5.5 per cent year to date, sitting at a record high, after 11 straight months of price growth.

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